Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Best shooters

The shooting percentage is key parameter for winning games. Players who are able to have high percentage for different types of throws are very valuable. To stay on high percentage is very difficult and only few players are all around shooters.

Here is list of best all around shooters:

PlayerTeamFree ThrowsField ThrowsThree Throws
Nash, StevePHO94%56%46%
Paul, ChrisNOR
86%54%49%
Allen, RayBOS
93%52%36%
Pierce, PaulBOS
83%50%44%
Williams, MoCLE
88%45%44%
Calderon, JoseTOR
79%56%40%
Anthony, CarmeloDEN
87%50%36%
Crawford, JamalATL
87%55%31%
Williams, LouPHI
83%58%32%

The best shooter is Steve Nash, who is really able to be dangerous from all positions. His free throws (80/85) have the highest percentage in the league and 94% is his career maximum. The shooting behind the arc is also excellent and Nash is above 45%. Nash is at his age very competitive and his numbers are still very high.

On the second place is excellent long distance shooter Chris Paul. He was injured but his shooting performance is again amazing. This year he improved three points shooting dramatically and he is attacking 50% (23 / 47) here.

Very good situation is in Boston where are two elite shooters Pierce and Allen, what is big advantage. Boston has the best percentage efficiency from the field 49.5% and of course the focus is on the defense (best in the league).

In Cleveland is Lebron James supported by Mo Williams shooting. Among top shooters belong also Carmelo Anthony who is leading points per game in league with 30.4. He is shooting 20 attempts from field and 10 on the line in average and his shooting is very balanced from all positions.

Not far from this group are Dirk Nowitzki (89% / 48% / 35%) and Lebron James (78% / 55% / 36%). Dirk is excellent at free throws and Lebron from the field. From the frequent shooters quite low numbers have Trevor Ariza (67% / 41% / 34%).

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Old but still good

Experiences are very important and every team needs players who are able to lead the team in critical moments. There are several elderly players who are able to compete. Here is list of oldest players who score 20+ points in single game this season:

PlayerAgePosPTS
Shaquille O'Neal37-242C21
Grant Hill37-027F23
Steve Nash35-269G30
Marcus Camby35-220C23
Rasheed Wallace35-047F20

These 5 players are really very respected players and are playing very good. Steve Nash has started this season with shooting percentage above 50% from the field and behind the arc with average 19 ppg. He is one of the best shooter in the league.


O'Neal changed the team and is playing lower minute than in Phoenix (25mpg). Grant Hill looks better this season and Camby has 2+bpg. This group should join Jason Kidd and Michael Finley later.

There are 17 players who are 35 who are currently playing. The oldest is Lindsey Hunter who is 39 and plays for Bulls. Twenty points and more scored 112 players from 372 players till now.

Kobe reached 24,000 points

Kobe Bryant scored 41 points while becoming the youngest player to reach 24,000. Bryant carried the Lakers while reaching his latest scoring milestone 38 days before Wilt Chamberlain did. Kobe needed 954 games for this milestone. He has chance to reach this record also for 25,000 milestone (Wilt Chamberlain &0000000000000031.00000031 years, &0000000000000186.000000186 days), if he score them before Feb 25, 2010.

Lakers guard Kobe Bryant is becoming the youngest player to score 24,000 career points. Youngest to 24,000 Points:

PlayerYears-Days
Kobe Bryant31-75
Wilt Chamberlain31-113
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar32-331
Oscar Robertson33-13
Michael Jordan33-30

Kobe even overtook Grizzlies guard Allen Iverson for 16th place on the NBA's career scoring list. There are only 10 players in the NBA history who have 24,000 points, 5,000 rebound and 4,000 assists (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Julius Erving, Jerry West, John Havlicek and Alex English).

Bryant scored exactly 41 points for the third time in four games, giving him 99 career 40-point games. Kobe is third all-time behind No. 2 Michael Jordan's 173 40-point games and runaway leader Wilt Chamberlain's 271 (No. 4 Elgin Baylor 88, No. 5 Allen Iverson 79).

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Top 10 NBA players

New season have started and the games showing us a lot of great actions. Here is look at the best players in my opinion, who deserve attention all of fans. What is interesting on first three places are Shaq teammates.

Last 3 years statistics: Statistics

10. Amare Stoudemire
After big season 2006-07 had Amare health problems but his best years should come. Phoenix after changes needs time to consolidate and then again attack the top stages in the league. With Steve Nash are the very good synchronized duo and can be dangerous for all teams. Amare is very efficient scorer with potential to have a lot of 20-10 games and be on of the best forwards in the league.
2009-10 (19-8-1-0-1) - 29

9. Kevin Garnett
After injury last year and missing play-off is Boston team again with complete roster and is prepared to be leading team in NBA. Garnett is key point in Boston defense and he is regularly in the first All-Defensive Team. Garnett wants the second ring and his ability could help Boston to reach the title again. This year he could play doble-double games.
2009-10 (13-8-2-1-1) - 25

8. Steve Nash
Two MVP thophies are at home and still ambitions to win. Phoenix team is changed but still actions with Amare Stoudemire are still famous. Nash is still assists leader in the league, behind Chris Paul He has one of the best hand in the league and his shooting percentage is famous. In free throws is one of the best with more than 90% and 3pt shooting around 45% and 50% from the field.
2009-10 (15-3-9-0-0) - 27

7. Tim Duncan
Duncan has three titles and two MVP awards and a lots of ambitions to the new season. San Antonio with addition of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess will be one of the most experiences team. Duncan will be maybe declining at scoring but he is still one of the best defender. He is regularly in top 10 in rebounds and blocks.
2009-10 (16-11-2-0-1) - 30

6. Dirk Nowitzki
Best european player and former MVP of the league is in the stronger team this year. Dallas has ambitions to be again in the finale. He is regularly in the First All-NBA team. He is offensive threat and very good defensive rebounder. He is in top ten scorers and has a lot of free throws. At his 31 his numbers are declining.
2009-10 (26-8-2-0-0) - 36

5. Chris Paul
The best in assists and steals in the league for last two seasons is still raising and we can expect a lot. He is member of first defensive team in the league and he is able to have more than 11 assists and 2 steals per game. This season will probably increase his PPG. However New Orleans is behind the top favorite on the title.
2009-10 (24-5-10-2-0) - 41

4. Dwight Howard
Actually the best in rebounds and blocks and Defensive Player of the Year. His team with Vince Carter will be attacking the title after being last year in the finale series. But competition in Eastern Conference is huge though.
2009-10 (20-13-1-1-3) - 38

3. Dwyane Wade
Wade is shooting machine and he is going to be the best scorer again. He has the title with Shaq and his is trying to go back. Miami has good team but they can wait for maturing of Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. He is in the top ten in assists and steals also. He was second in turnovers.
2009-10 (29-5-7-2-1) - 44

2. Kobe Bryant
Kobe has the biggest season behind with Olympics title, NBA title and All-Star Game MVP and NBA Finals MVP. He is still focusing on the Lakers success, but I expect lower average numbers. There is expectation that other players will take more responsibility. But Kobe's actions are the best in the league.
2009-10 (25-5-4-1-0) - 35

1. LeBron James
Actually the best player in the league. Current MVP and the strongest candidate for MVP trophy this year. The only goal is title this season. His numbers are maybe at the top last year, but his all around skills are incredible. This year he maybe will play 8rpg and 8apg. We can expect many tripple double this year. Next year he is before signing of new contract and the clubs will offer him the best offerings.
2009-10 (28-8-8-1-1) - 46

There are many opinions who should be in the list. Trully Yao Ming should be on the list, but he will be missing the whole this season. Paul Pierce with the title and leadership in Boston is also strong candidate.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Team leaders

The team leaders are the key persons in the team and every general managers would like to have star like Lebron James in the roster. These stars has own team and everybody is focusing on them.

True Leaders
There are only several players who are able to dominate and lead their teams long time. Here are players who lead the same team's stats for at least four years:
  • Lebron James (24)
  • Nowitzki Dirk (31)
  • Bryant Kobe (31)
  • Vince Carter (32)
  • Chris Paul (24)
  • Dwight Howard (23)
  • Tim Duncan (33)
  • Bosh Chris (25)
  • Baron Davis (30)
  • Andre Iguodala (25)
To be in this list means to be the best in the team for several season and be able to resist against injuries. In several teams is big competition and is difficult be the best every year. The oldest leader is Tim Duncan (33). The young players are coming forward Paul James and the youngest Howard. Leadership of New Jersey should take Devin Harris. Iguodala took the leadership from Allen Iverson at Philadelphia after his trade in 2006.

Interesting duo Howard - Carter will be very strong at Orlando this year. Combination of powerful center with dynamic Vince Carter (potential 20-5-5 this year) can bring additional wins.

Team200920082007
Atlanta
Joe JohnsonJoe JohnsonJosh Smith
Boston
Paul PiercePaul PierceAl Jefferson
Charlotte
Raymond FeltonJason RichardsonGerald Wallace
Chicago
Ben GordonBen GordonLuol Deng
Cleveland
Lebron JamesLebron JamesLebron James
Dallas
Dirk NowitzkiDirk NowitzkiDirk Nowitzki
Denver
Carmelo AnthonyAllen IversonCarmelo Anthony
Detroit
Tayshaun PrinceChauncey BillupsRichard Hamilton
Golden State
Stephen JacksonBaron DavisBaron Davis
Houston
Yao MingTracy McgradyTracy Mcgrady
Indiana
Danny GrangerDanny GrangerJermaine O'Neal
ClippersBaron DavisCorey MaggetteElton Brand
LakersKobe BryantKobe BryantKobe Bryant
Memphis
Rudy GayRudy GayPau Gasol
Miami
Dwyane WadeShawn MarionDwyane Wade
Milwaukee
Richar JeffersonAndrew BogutMo Williams
Minnesota
Al JeffersonAl JeffersonKevin Garnett
New Jersey
Vince CarterVince CarterVince Carter
New Orleans
Chris PaulChris PaulChris Paul
New York
David LeeJamal CrawfordEddy Curry
Oklahoma
Kevin DurantKevin DurantRay Allen
Orlando
Dwight HowardDwight HowardDwight Howard
Philadelphia
Andre IguodalaAndre IguodalaAndre Iguodala
Phoenix
Shaquille O'NealAmare StoudemireAmare Stoudemire
Portland
Brandon RoyBrandon RoyZach Randolph
Sacramento
Jason ThompsonBrad MillerKevin Martin
San Antonio
Tim DuncanTim DuncanTim Duncan
Toronto
Chris BoshChris BoshChris Bosh
Utah
Deron WilliamsCarlos BoozerCarlos Boozer
Washington
Antawn JamisonAntawn JamisonGilbert Arenas

Other leaders
There are players who are the leaders and the only reason why there are not every year the stats leader are injuries.
  • Paul Pierce (32)
  • Carmelo Anthony (25)
  • Dwyane Wade (27)
  • Joe Johnson (28)
  • Amare Stoudemire (26)
Young guns
There are several young players who have stable position in their team. One of the most potential players is Kevin Durant, who should be 25ppg / 10 rpg player.
  • Danny Granger (26)
  • Rudy Gay (23)
  • Al Jefferson (24)
  • Kevin Durant (21)
  • Brandon Roy (25)
Interesting will be to watch who will be the leader at New Jersey (Devin Harris), Milwaukee (Michael Redd), Houston (Luis Scola) and Chicago (Luol Deng).

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

2009-10 Standings forecast

New season of NBA is before start and everybody is looking forward to the games. Here are the results of the teams from previous years and forecast for the new season. The forecast is linear regression of team's results from past six years. This method is trying to find the trend in the results. Of course there are some possible inaccurancy because some team has in some season very unusual results due to injuries or other factors (Miami in 2007). On the other side there are team which make break (Boston in 2007) and than the trend is completely different. But in the most cases the is interesting to follow the trends and compare them with real situation. The last column is standings in ESPN Power Ranking before the season.

RkTeam04050607080910ESPN
1.Cleveland Cavaliers354250504566644
2.Orlando Magic213636405259642
3.Boston Celtics364533246662623
4.Los Angeles Lakers 563445425765611
5.Phoenix Suns2962546155465810
6.Utah Jazz4226415154485612
7.San Antonio Spurs575963585654555
8.Houston Rockets4551345255535522
9.New Orleans Hornets4118383956495511
10.Dallas Mavericks525860675150547
11.Denver Nuggets434944455054536
12.Portland Trail Blazers412721324154478
13.Atlanta Hawks281326303747479
14.Detroit Pistons5454645359394618
15.Chicago Bulls2347414933414413
16.Philadelphia 76ers3343383540414117
17.Charlotte Bobcats
18263332354019
18.Toronto Raptors3333274741334014
19.Golden State Warriors3734344248293823
20.Washington Wizards2545424143193215
21.New Jersey Nets4742494134343125
22.Miami Heat4259524415432916
23.Milwaukee Bucks4130402826342729
24.Indiana Pacers6144413536362624
25.New York Knicks3933233323322526
26.Los Angeles Clippers2837474023192320
27.Oklahoma City Thunder3752353120231621
28.Sacramento Kings5550443338171630
29.Memphis Grizzlies5045492222241328
30.Minnesota Timberwolves5844333222241227

The competition for the best season record will be very huge and the candidates for the title strengthen their teams. Top candidates are:
  • Lakers - will try to repeat the last season and be again the team which is able to repeat the championships. The team is almost the same and the only change was replacement of Ariza by Ron Artest. There is big expectation how will be Artest able to integrate to this team and help to move forward.
  • Boston - is back again with strong triplet: Pierce, Allen, Garnett and in addition is Rasheed Wallace. With dynamic guard Rajon Rondo the Boston's starter roster is maybe the strongest in the league.
  • Cleveland - Lebron James will try to win the title with help of Shaquille O'Neal. If Shaq will be able to be 20-10 player, Cleveland will be very strong inside and most of the team will have big troubles.
  • Orlando - The very ambitions team was in the final and goal is clear for this season. Best center in the league Dwight Howard will have new teammate Vince Carter. Question is if Carter will have expected performance and have a big season. Guard Jameer Nelson should be healthy and only player who will be missing is Hedo Turkoglu (to Raptors).
  • San Antonio - is trying to compete again. The new players Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess (from Pistons), Theo Ratliff (from 76ers) make the Spurs one of the most experienced team in the league. Big expectations are from Richard Jefferson, who shoul add 20 points per game.
Behind these favorite teams should be Dallas with huge addition of Jason Kidd (re-signed), Drew Gooden (from Spurs), Tim Thomas (from Bulls), Shawn Marion (from Raptors). Roster is very strong and it will interesting how the team will be cooperate together. The second possible surprise could be Denver with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Denver had very strong series seven games series against Lakers in the last play off.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Preseason 2009-10: Lakers evaluation

Lakers preseasons games are finished and team show some good results. Overal results are 6 wins and 2 losses. Results are not so important because most of games are preparation and test for new players.
Bad sign are several injuries: Gasol, Bynum, Odom and Walton.

OCTOBEROPPONENTRESULTW-L
Wed, Oct 7Golden StateW 118-1011-0
Fri, Oct 9Golden StateL 91-1101-1
Thu, Oct 15SacramentoW 98-922-1
Sat, Oct 17CharlotteW 91-873-1
Sun, Oct 18LA ClippersW 114-1084-1
Tue, Oct 20Golden StateW 113-1075-1
Thu, Oct 22DenverW 106-896-1
Fri, Oct 23DenverL 105-1196-2

Here is my evaluation of player's preseason games. I use my special coefficient Net Efficiency (NEFF).

Player12345678Total
Kobe Bryant, SG221120211018235130
Andrew Bynum, C191722202523

126
Jordan Farmar, PG14652110911480
Josh Powell, FC-126266613765
Ron Artest, SF17510-913116760
Lamar Odom, PF878

1515760
Shannon Brown, SG656-3155111156
Sasha Vujacic, SG53613-1591656
Adam Morrison, SF03351255538
D.J. Mbenga, C

246-2121234
Tony Gaffney, G15411432
30
Pau Gasol, FC1614





30
Derek Fisher, PG1-381753325
Luke Walton, SF40



6818
Mickael Gelabale, SF45





9
Thomas Kelati, G112-3
3

4
Michael Fey, C
2





2
David Monds, F2






2

In the preseason games leader was as always Kobe, who plays limited minutes. The biggest improvement showed Bynum. His offensive performance was very promising. Question is if his performance level will be stable during the season and if he is able to stay healthy.

Positive:

  • Bynum offensive plays
  • Lamar Odom all around plays
  • Shannon Brown dunks and athleticism

Negative:

  • Derek Fisher
  • Luke Walton
  • Adam Morrison

I expect bigger improvement from Morrison and Vujacic. To find time for these two players will be very difficult. Very important will be participation of Ron Artest who is learning the Lakers system. Maybe many people expect bigger impact on the team. He is very strong but his quite slow. I expect more and for me it's little disappointment. We will see how will be comparison with Ariza.

Expected starters should be:
  • Bynum
  • Gasol
  • Artest
  • Bryant
  • Fisher
Sixth man would be Lamar Odom but during the season he very probably receive chance to start the games. For the guard position there will be interesting how strong will be the effort of Farmar and Brown to became the starter.

Lakers roster and salaries for 2009-10 season:

NoPlayer2009/10
24Kobe Bryant$23,034,375
16Pau Gasol$16,451,250
17Andrew Bynum$12,526,998
7Lamar Odom$7,500,000
37Ron Artest$5,854,000
6Adam Morrison$5,257,228
2Derek Fisher$5,048,000
18Sasha Vujacic$5,000,000
4Luke Walton$4,840,000
12Shannon Brown$2,000,000
1Jordan Farmar$1,947,240
28Didier Ilunga-Mbenga$959,111
21Josh Powell$959,111

TOTALS:$91,377,313

Lakers are spending most money in the league for the player's salaries (Salary Cap for season 2008-09 is $57.7 million, luxury tax level is set at $69.92 million). From the last season the biggest change is replacement of Ariza by Artest. What is interesting both players have the same salary $5,854,000 in the coming season. The team remain almost the same. On the other hand there are only 13 players on the roster due to salaries cap. Morrison, Vujacic and Walton (15 million for all three) have very high salaries in compare to the role in the team and I expect the discussion about possible trade of them before trade deadline.

So I hope that the new season will be successful and Lakers repeat the championship title year and all the Lakers fans will be happy. Good luck Lakers in new season 2009-10!